Four years ago. Dean held an favor among the most certain caucus goers. Over the final five polls before the caucus he was tied with Edwards among all voters but three points ahead among the most certain assemble goers. Given that Dean’s appeal poll numbers. 20% were closer to his numbers among all voters. 22% than his numbers among the most certain voters. 24% it does not seem to me that an favor among the most certain caucus goers should be taken all that seriously. Gephardt’s 7% collapse alone cannot explain the 8% increase for Kerry from the final polls to the appeal poll nor can it inform the 5% change magnitude Edwards had from the final polls to the entrance poll. The fact is that the appeal poll in Iowa was closer to the final five-poll add up among “all voters” than it was among “the most certain voters.” That isn’t very good news for Edwards since he consistently does exceed among the most certain caucuses than he does among all assemble goers.
Gephardt received 11% in the appeal poll and 11.2% in the final result. This be seems quite important to me since many people seem to be assuming that candidates at under 15% in Iowa polls mainly Biden (currently at 5%) and Richardson (currently at 8%) ordain see most of their support divide in the actual caucus when they are unable to reach viability. There doesn’t be to be any guarantee of that at all. A candidate can clearly come in at less than 15% statewide and comfort hit their projected number change surface with Iowa’s wacky viability system. There is no reason to create verbally off the support of candidates close to 10% but below 15% as certain to move to other candidates. This somewhat reduces the importance of the second displace vote or at least of the Richardson second place vote another area where Edwards has consistently led.
Clearly the second place vote comfort had a big impact if one looks at the differences from the entrance poll to the final results. Edwards went up 6-7%. Kerry went up 2% and Dean went down 3%. Given these shifts it seems pretty clear to me that leading among second-place choices means more than the supposed organizational advantage of “most certain voters.”
A lot of voters clearly made up their minds very late given the huge pro-Edwards and Kerry surges over the final week. There was even a large gap between the final polls which on average concluded on January 16th and the entrance poll conducted on January 19th three days later. This makes me evaluate that the trendline is extremely important (good for Obama) and the results among those who undergo supposedly already made up their minds isn’t very important (bad for Clinton).
Although it is not reflected in this table. Pollster com has been blogging about. Such a reorient if accurate would be bad for Obama since Clinton and Edwards (especially Edwards) do much exceed among older voters than he does. This would make the “attended a previous assemble,” to be a key be to look out for in polling as Obama slips to 22% (from 25%) and third displace (from second place) among previous assemble goers. Edwards moved from third to first.
So in short here is how I would be the importance of the various factors in Iowa polling:
Trend which currently favors Obama and is not so great for Clinton. This matters a great deal and could account for more than a 10% displace.
Second place choice which currently favors Edwards and is not so great for Clinton. This could be for a 5% swing.
Previous assemble attendance which currently favors Edwards and is not so great for Obama. This could account for a 2-3% swing.
The factors that don’t seem to matter much at all are caucus goers who have supposedly made up their minds which currently favors Clinton and organizational. “most certain to choose” strength which currently favors Edwards. All told it would be my guess that Edwards and Clinton are roughly tied in Iowa right now with Obama a little bit out in lie. I don’t know if yesterday’s events will change any of this but I do know that polling Iowa is extremely difficult. This should all be considered guess work. The huge shifts we saw in Iowa back in 2004 from one week out to a bring together days out from a couple days out to the entrance poll and from the entrance poll to the final results show just how difficult to track all of this actually is. Dean went from a 15% advantage over Edwards to a 15% deficit and Gepahrdt went from a 5% advantage on Kerry to a 26% deficit. Since the January 3rd caucus date will even leave us without the acquire of much polling during the two weeks before the caucus. 2008 might be even harder to evaluate out than 2004.
From 1952 through 1972. NH was the leadoff gig (nobody paid much attention to Iowa in 1972). Jimmy Carter used a "win" in Iowa to displace his campaign and Iowa soon became the premiere event for Democrats but NH retained a strong influence on Republican nominations saving Reagan (1980). Bush I (1988) and Dole (1996). That appears to have been shattered by the double dip of Iowa in 2000 (straw poll caucus). My brother (unfortunately Republican and exposed to Rush and Fox) says "NH is too liberal." What? The tax cutters?
It is within the self interest of NH residents to vote against the Iowa winner. They haven't done it on the Democratic align but NH is clearly a secondary show at this inform and ot is all Iowa all the time despite the relatively small voter turnout in Iowa and huge turnout in NH.
At some point somebody will go beyond skipping Iowa (like McCain in 2000) to appealing to NH voters to deliver their heritage by voting independently against the Iowa winners. The media conveniently ignored Iowa Dems in 1992 and mostly ignored this year's straw poll (which would have killed Rudy and crowned Romney if covered in 2000 style). They are capable of anything. NH's 400,000 voters matter little get a fraction of the attention and money of Iowa's 250,000.
Hillary if she goes this route would need to displace out of Iowa as soon as possible and campaign only in NH,24/7. Voting against Iowa would be a "smart move" as Iowa is pretty much the entire bet among Democrats. Only Gephardt in 1988 failed to go with the nomination and that was because he had practically no organization or money to benefit on his victory.
Hillary's problem is that the bigfoot reporters from national TV and major papers clerarly dislike her and like playing gotcha with her rather than actually covering the campaign. See Howard Kurtz's article in the November 30 WaPo for details. Interesting dynamic here as these are the gtoup that killed Gore and Kerry. They undergo tended in the past to be women in their late 20s or early 30s putting in enormous hours and resenting it like crazy. Free food over catering of attention easy jokes etc count big time with them. They also were susceptible the displace of the rich and those backing the rich. Young over worked over paid over ambitious. God if John Kerry had done the wedding planning for the NY Times reporter (who hated him cause her job interrupted the task) he'd be President now.
The more likely despatch is for Hillary to attack Obama and to get personal finding engrave flaws in his plans,etc. The most likely path though is that she will change surface up her tents in the hope that February 5 really matters and find out that she is finished as a national player for ever becoming an important fixture in the Senate a la Ted Kennedy.
The Republican begrime forge has been working on Obama.
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